Alpine Macro was founded in October 2017 as an independent global investment research firm based in Montreal, Canada.
Our partners have worked together for decades. They had an opportunity to come together again to bring clarity, understanding, and insight to investors in today’s complex and unique investment environment. Alpine Macro’s mission is to make our clients money while saving them from reading the massive volume of mediocre “research” that generates more time consuming “noise” than value added “signal”.
“Follow the Money” is a time-tested prescription for understanding what’s likely to happen in markets. Our methodology is based on the simple truth that changes in money, credit and liquidity conditions drive changes in financial markets. Central banks play a critical role in this process through their conduct of monetary policy. Our senior team includes five former central bankers who have extensive experience and understanding of central banks’ lens on the economy. This enables them to anticipate what the Fed and other key central banks will do before the market figures it out.
While conceptually simple, the application of a liquidity-based methodology for forecasting financial market trends is complex. The approach is part art, part science and must always be eclectic, practical, and grounded in experience. This is Alpine Macro’s sweet spot.
2020 is a case in point. In the first quarter of the year, the Covid-19 virus’ rapid spread caused panic in financial markets. At Alpine Macro, our understanding of how monetary and fiscal policy impact markets led us to warn clients early on that the massive increase in liquidity would cause a V-shaped recovery in both the stock market and the economy.
Another example came from our central banking experience. We understood that the Fed’s new regime of average inflation targeting would give a green light to speculators, leading to mania in asset prices. Our strategists have a lengthy history (going back to the 1990s) of studying financial manias, credit super cycles and how they eventually lead to panics and crashes.
Alpine Macro’s team of strategists offers a unique and compelling value proposition for institutional investors. Over many years, they have developed a framework for analyzing economic and financial market trends that sophisticated investors around the world have come to rely on for actionable global asset allocation insight. Chen Zhao, Tony Boeckh, David Abramson, Yan Wang, Harvinder Kalirai, Mark McClellan and Caroline Miller have many decades of experience, much of it working together. They are supported by an experienced team of research analysts with expertise in all major asset classes and regional markets.
The research team has a combination of rigorous academic training, policy, and practical experience in understanding what drives the economy, financial markets, and policy makers’ reaction function to both. The financial system has become truly global and Alpine Macro’s strategists’ background, training, and experience is global.
For example, China has become the marginal driver of global growth, affecting commodity prices, currency valuation, and thus global inflation, interest rates, and equity markets. Alpine Macro has arguably the best China team anywhere to keep clients attuned to developments there which are a leading indicator for global growth and financial market trends.
Chen Zhao is the Chief Global Strategist of Alpine Macro. From 2015 to 2016, he was Co-Director of Macro Research at Brandywine Global Investment Management. Prior to Brandywine Global, Chen spent 23 years at BCA Research as Partner, Managing Editor and Chief Global Strategist, Chen developed and wrote BCA’s China and Emerging Markets publications in the 1990s. Chen became the firm’s Chief Global Strategist in the 2000s and was the author of BCA’s flagship publication, Global Investment Strategy from 2005 to 2015. He holds an MA in economics from the Central University of Finance and Economics, was a visiting scholar at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and pursued post graduate studies with a PhD candidacy at McGill University.
Tony Boeckh is the Executive Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of Alpine Macro. Tony was previously Chairman, Chief Executive and Editor-in-Chief of Montreal-based BCA Research for 34 years. He was the publisher of among others, the Bank Credit Analyst, a monthly big-picture analysis of the U.S. economy and financial markets. Tony has a PhD in Finance and Economics from The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and a B. Com. from the University of Toronto. He is a founding trustee of the Fraser Institute in Vancouver, British Columbia (an economic “think tank” dedicated to free market principles) and author of several books, including The Great Reflation (Wiley 2010), the best seller on Amazon, and The Stock Market and Inflation (Dow Jones-Irwin 1982).
David Abramson is the Chief U.S. Strategist & Director of Research with Alpine Macro. For 28 years, David was a Macro Strategist holding a variety of senior roles at BCA Research. Most recently, he was Chief U.S. Strategist and also Director of Research for the firm. During his tenure at BCA Research, David launched and managed the European Strategy and Commodity & Energy Strategy services. In addition, he was the Managing Editor for the Foreign Exchange Strategy and the China Investment Strategy services. He has taught international finance to MBAs at McGill University for 20 years, and is on the Client Committee of the Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management Program at Concordia University.
Caroline Miller is the Chief Asset Allocation Strategist. Prior to joining Alpine Macro, Caroline spent eight years with BCA Research, where she served as a global strategist and the chief advocate for the firm’s research around the world. Before that, Caroline was an Executive Director and multi-asset portfolio manager at UBS Global Asset Management (New York/Montreal). Previously, she managed global fixed income at La Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (Montreal), and J.P. Morgan Investment Management (London). Caroline began her career as a fixed income and currency analyst at GMO (Boston) in 1992. She holds an MBA (Finance) from INSEAD, a BA (History) from Harvard University as well as the CFA and ICD.D designations.
Yan Wang is the Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist. Prior to Alpine Macro, Yan spent 15 years at BCA Research, as the Managing Editor and Chief Strategist for BCA’s China Investment Strategy service, and played a major role in formulating BCA’s view on the Greater China region and emerging Asia. Prior to joining BCA, he spent six years as an equity analyst in China and Hong Kong. Yan holds an MBA in Finance from McGill University, an M.A. in Economics from Tianjin Institute of Finance and a B.A. in Finance from Nankai University. He also holds the CFA designation.
Harvinder Kalirai is the Chief Global Fixed Income & Currency Strategist. Before joining Alpine Macro, Harvinder spent a decade with BCA Research, where he headed the firm’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service from 2008 to 2016 and Daily Insights from 2016 to 2018. Prior to BCA, Harvinder was Head of Currency Management at CIBC Global Asset Management. Previously, he held various positions at State Street Global Markets, including Senior Macro Strategist (London), Head of Currency Research, Asia-Pacific (Sydney), and Senior FX Strategist (Boston). Harvinder began his career at the Bank of Canada in 1995 with an MA (Economics) and a BCom (Finance) from McGill University. He also holds the CFA designation.
Mark McClellan is Alpine Macro’s Chief U.S. Bond Strategist. Prior to joining Alpine Macro, Mark was a Senior VP and held numerous key positions during his 23-year career at BCA Research, including Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist. He was instrumental in developing and directing several fixed income publications, including the BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy and the U.S. Bond Strategy services. Mark also covered U.S. asset allocation when he headed the U.S. Investment Strategy service, as well as BCA’s centerpiece publication, the monthly Bank Credit Analyst. Mark began his career as an economist and macro forecaster at the Bank of Canada, and holds a M.A. (Economics) from Western University and a B.A. (Economics) from McMaster University.
Dan Alamariu, Chief Geopolitical Strategist Prior to joining Alpine Macro, Dan spent eight years with UBS, as an Executive Director, responsible for country sovereign risk analysis for the Americas. Prior to UBS, Dan was a Director at Eurasia Group in various roles, including in global comparative analysis, and ran product development. Dan has also worked at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, and at Deloitte Consulting.