Independent investment research
Market insights & analysis
Investment strategy & asset allocation recommendations

Recent Research

Global Strategy

Money, Credit And Inflation

June 08, 2020

The report examines whether the concerns that exploding money supply is causing inflation are misplaced and explains why the policy response to the COVID-19 crisis has created a “sweet spot” for risk assets.

The report also lays out the framework to understand how money, interest rates and asset prices interact over the longer run and points out the growing potential for asset bubbles in the post-COVID-19 world due to rampant money and credit creation.

 

Emerging Markets & China Strategy

Great Concerns In Greater China

May 27, 2020

China’s long-delayed National People’s Congress delivered underwhelming growth objectives and policy support, a sign that the Chinese government is entering “survival mode”. It intends to save its “policy bullets” in preparation for a prolonged hostile global environment amid the conflict with the U.S. Issues with Hong Kong and Taiwan will be the new points of contention in the U.S. – China relationship, on which Beijing has little room for negotiation.

An all-out cold war between the U.S. and China is still a tail risk at the moment, but the odds are quickly rising and warrant close attention. In addition, this week’s report also recommends long positions in Mexican and Brazilian local currency government bonds.

 

Global Fixed Income & Currency Strategy

The Threat Of Secular Stagnation

June 05, 2020

The coronavirus could exacerbate the trend towards secular stagnation. An extended period of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies will be required to prevent such an outcome. Large budget deficits, funded by the Fed, will be needed to plug the immediate hole in private demand. QE and YCC should cap Treasury yields. Keep duration at benchmark for now.

The longer term goal of Fed policy will be to push inflation materially higher. This is the only way to lower real interest rates and balance private sector savings and investment. Long-term investors should favor TIPS over nominal bonds and maintain positions in gold. Finally, the U.S. dollar has started an intermediate-term decline, which could morph into a cyclical bear market.

 At Alpine Macro, we have brought together some of world’s brightest and most successful Strategists with decades of combined experience with global financial markets.  Our team is dedicated to producing the most insightful, relevant and provocative independent investment research you can find.”

– Chen Zhao, Co-founder & Chief Global Strategist

Meet Our Strategists

Chen Zhao

Chen Zhao

Chief Global Strategist

Tony Boeckh

Tony Boeckh

CEO & Editor-In-Chief

David Abramson

David Abramson

Chief U.S. Strategist & Director of Research

Yan Wang

Yan Wang

Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist

Harvinder Kalirai

Harvinder Kalirai

Chief Fixed Income & Currency Strategist

Our senior strategists are supported by a growing team of investment professionals.

Research Coverage

Global
Strategy

Unique insights and the analysis of major global macroeconomic forces and their implications for various asset markets including global stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.

EM & China
Strategy

Timely and in-depth analysis of macro trends and key investment themes in emerging markets, with actionable investment strategy and asset allocation recommendations.

Global Fixed Income & FX Strategy

An analysis of macroeconomics and political trends for the purpose of identifying and recommending investment and trading opportunities in G10 bonds and currencies.

U.S. Themes
& Strategy

An analysis of economics, monetary and political trends in the U.S. affecting its financial markets. Featuring Special and Feature Reports which delve into current, relevant U.S.-oriented topics.

SUPPORT

​Difficulty accessing our research?

Call Us
+1 514-558-1414

Email Us
support@alpinemacro.com

SALES

Questions about our service?

Call Us
+1 514-558-1414

Email Us
info@alpinemacro.com

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1130 Sherbrooke Street West, Suite PH1,
Montreal, Quebec H3A 2M8, Canada

Recent Research

Global Strategy

Money, Credit And Inflation

June 08, 2020

The report examines whether the concerns that exploding money supply is causing inflation are misplaced and explains why the policy response to the COVID-19 crisis has created a “sweet spot” for risk assets.

The report also lays out the framework to understand how money, interest rates and asset prices interact over the longer run and points out the growing potential for asset bubbles in the post-COVID-19 world due to rampant money and credit creation.

 

Emerging Markets And China Strategy

Great Concerns In Greater China

May 27, 2020

China’s long-delayed National People’s Congress delivered underwhelming growth objectives and policy support, a sign that the Chinese government is entering “survival mode”. It intends to save its “policy bullets” in preparation for a prolonged hostile global environment amid the conflict with the U.S. Issues with Hong Kong and Taiwan will be the new points of contention in the U.S. – China relationship, on which Beijing has little room for negotiation.

An all-out cold war between the U.S. and China is still a tail risk at the moment, but the odds are quickly rising and warrant close attention. In addition, this week’s report also recommends long positions in Mexican and Brazilian local currency government bonds.

 

Global Fixed Income & Currency Strategy

The Threat Of Secular Stagnation

June 05, 2020

The coronavirus could exacerbate the trend towards secular stagnation. An extended period of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies will be required to prevent such an outcome. Large budget deficits, funded by the Fed, will be needed to plug the immediate hole in private demand. QE and YCC should cap Treasury yields. Keep duration at benchmark for now.

The longer term goal of Fed policy will be to push inflation materially higher. This is the only way to lower real interest rates and balance private sector savings and investment. Long-term investors should favor TIPS over nominal bonds and maintain positions in gold. Finally, the U.S. dollar has started an intermediate-term decline, which could morph into a cyclical bear market.

 

 At Alpine Macro, we have brought together some of world’s brightest and most successful Strategists with decades of combined experience with global financial markets.  Our team is dedicated to producing the most insightful, relevant and provocative independent investment research you can find.”

– Chen Zhao, Co-founder & Chief Global Strategist

Meet Our Strategists

Chen Zhao

Chen Zhao

Chief Global Strategist

Tony Boeckh

Tony Boeckh

CEO & Editor-In-Chief

David Abramson

David Abramson

Chief U.S. Strategist & Director of Research

Yan Wang

Yan Wang

Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist

Harvinder Kalirai

Harvinder Kalirai

Chief Fixed Income & Currency Strategist

Our senior strategists are supported by a growing team of investment professionals.

Research Coverage

Global
Strategy

Unique insights and the analysis of major global macroeconomic forces and their implications for various asset markets including global stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.

Emerging Markets
& China Strategy

Timely and in-depth analysis of macro trends and key investment themes in emerging markets, with actionable investment strategy and asset allocation recommendations.

Global Fixed Income
& Currency Strategy

An analysis of macroeconomics and political trends for the purpose of identifying and recommending investment and trading opportunities in G10 bonds and currencies.

U.S. Themes
& Strategy

An analysis of economics, monetary and political trends in the U.S. affecting its financial markets. Featuring Special and Feature Reports which delve into current, relevant U.S.-oriented topics.

SUPPORT

​Difficulty accessing our research?

Call Us
+1 514-558-1414

Email Us
support@alpinemacro.com

SALES

Questions about our service?

Call Us
+1 514-558-1414

Email Us
info@alpinemacro.com

CONNECT

Follow us on social media?

1130 Sherbrooke Street West, Suite PH1,
Montreal, Quebec H3A 2M8, Canada