U.S. Themes & Strategy

U.S. Themes & Strategy is authored by David Abramson, with a focus on actionable macro themes and investment insights over both cyclical and secular horizons. Published one week per month, U.S. Themes & Strategy covers a wide variety of economic, monetary, and political trends affecting financial markets. Analysis relates to U.S. trends, but frequently has powerful global implications. 

 

David Abramson
Chief U.S. Strategist & Director of Research
Full Bio >

U.S. Themes & Strategy Deliverables
U.S. Themes & Strategy

Published each month, the focus is on long-term macroeconomic, financial, and political themes that can be tied to actionable investment recommendations. These themes are often geared to timing key market turning points.

Special Reports

Published each month, Special Reports do a “deep dive” into U.S.-oriented hot topics and questions of interest to investors. Examples include: Can inflation decline even if the U.S. economy grows at trend? Can a bull market in energy return?  What are the prospects for a technology stock mania?

Feature Reports

Written by guest contributors from within our network, Feature Reports provide stimulating investment insights, ideas, and opinions. These contributors are experts in their field, but tend to be “off the beaten track.”

The results are provocative and authoritative, regardless of whether they agree with the Alpine Macro house view.  Some examples include Robert Kaplan’s “The Coming Geopolitical Challenges for the West” and Mark Chandler’s “Xi and He: China’s Economic Policy”.  

Previous U.S. Themes & Strategy Research


The Case For A V-Shape – March 23, 2020

The current episode rhymes with previous V-shape market trajectories in 1998, 2001 and 2008, even though the shock driving the panic is unique. The potential for a corporate credit event is high up on our list of tail risks to monitor, at least until the government offers open-ended protection to credit-starved corporations. Gold remains attractive while for oil and energy stocks it is still too soon to bottom-fish.


Housing And The COVID-19 Shock: A Discussion With Joe Gyourko – March 26, 2020

This report comes at a critical time for both the U.S. housing market and broader economy. Unlike 2008, the real estate is far from the epicentre of the meltdown. But it will be critical to consumer behaviour and the nature of the recovery.

Conditions are falling into place for a prolonged real estate expansion and outperformance of housing plays. Apartment REITs and distressed Houston assets are among the assets to consider.


Bank Stocks And The V-Shape March 27, 2020

Bank stocks have performed like “2008 all over again” during the pandemic. Barring a nightmare scenario, we agree with Warren Buffett. Banks should be among the market leaders once the bottom is in place, given encouraging differences with the Global Financial Crisis.

U.S. Themes & Strategy

U.S. Themes & Strategy is authored by David Abramson, with a focus on actionable macro themes and investment insights over both cyclical and secular horizons. Published one week per month, U.S. Themes & Strategy covers a wide variety of economic, monetary, and political trends affecting financial markets. Analysis relates to U.S. trends, but frequently has powerful global implications. 

David Abramson
Chief U.S. Strategist & Director of Research
Full Bio >

Key Deliverables
U.S. Themes & Strategy

Published each month, the focus is on long-term macroeconomic, financial, and political themes that can be tied to actionable investment recommendations. These themes are often geared to timing key market turning points.

Special Reports

Published each month, Special Reports do a “deep dive” into U.S.-oriented hot topics and questions of interest to investors. Examples include: Can inflation decline even if the U.S. economy grows at trend? Can a bull market in energy return?  What are the prospects for a technology stock mania?

Feature Reports

Written by guest contributors from within our network, Feature Reports provide stimulating investment insights, ideas, and opinions. These contributors are experts in their field, but tend to be “off the beaten track.”

The results are provocative and authoritative, regardless of whether they agree with the Alpine Macro house view.  Some examples include Robert Kaplan’s “The Coming Geopolitical Challenges for the West” and Mark Chandler’s “Xi and He: China’s Economic Policy”.  

Previous Research


The Case For A V-Shape – March 23, 2020

The current episode rhymes with previous V-shape market trajectories in 1998, 2001 and 2008, even though the shock driving the panic is unique. The potential for a corporate credit event is high up on our list of tail risks to monitor, at least until the government offers open-ended protection to credit-starved corporations. Gold remains attractive while for oil and energy stocks it is still too soon to bottom-fish.


Housing And The COVID-19 Shock: A Discussion With Joe Gyourko – March 26, 2020

This report comes at a critical time for both the U.S. housing market and broader economy. Unlike 2008, the real estate is far from the epicentre of the meltdown. But it will be critical to consumer behaviour and the nature of the recovery.

Conditions are falling into place for a prolonged real estate expansion and outperformance of housing plays. Apartment REITs and distressed Houston assets are among the assets to consider.


Bank Stocks And The V-Shape March 27, 2020

Bank stocks have performed like “2008 all over again” during the pandemic. Barring a nightmare scenario, we agree with Warren Buffett. Banks should be among the market leaders once the bottom is in place, given encouraging differences with the Global Financial Crisis.

“At Alpine Macro, we have brought together some of world’s brightest and most successful Strategists with decades of combined experience with global financial markets. Our clients can rest assured that our team is dedicated to producing the most insightful, relevant and provocative independent investment research you can find.”

– Chen Zhao, Co-founder & Chief Global Strategist