Stratégie des marchés émergents et de la Chine

March 15, 2026

China may be the lone global growth engine this year as the world suffers from the stagflationary shock induced by the Russia-Ukraine war, while the Federal Reserve and central banks in most other major economies still appear determined to tighten. The geopolitical crisis is also a risk to China’s growth outlook, but historically, China’s business cycle has primarily been determined by domestic policy and credit cycles rather than external demand. On this front, the ongoing People’s Congress offers important clues for Beijing’s policy initiatives and growth objectives. How much does China want to grow? How does Beijing plan to deliver on its growth target? How feasible is this objective?

EM investors should remain cautious in the near term. Historically, EM assets have rarely performed well amid a period of heightened global uncertainty. Turkey is particularly vulnerable, and risk to the Turkish lira has once again shifted decisively to the downside. Investors with a high-risk tolerance should consider shorting the TRY.