BOOM OR BUST?
ANTICIPATING THE DOMINANT THEMES AHEAD
Alpine Macro will be hosting its 2nd Investment Conference on May 4th 2020 in Manhattan, New York. It will be a day of vigorous discussion and debate on the global macro investment outlook and asset allocation strategy.
Historically low interest rates and bountiful credit have elevated asset prices. Investors face unprecedented challenges — Fed policy in 2020, potential asset bubbles, recession risk, credit breakdown and the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. These issues will have strong financial market implications impacting investors’ expected portfolio returns.
We have assembled a group of financial thought leaders to shed light on these issues and more.
Please register by filling out the form below. We look forward to seeing you in NYC.
Preliminary Conference Agenda
Tony Boeckh, CEO, Editor-in-Chief, Alpine Macro
The Bull-Bear Debate: Coming Boom or Bust?
James Grant, Founder and Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer and
James Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist, The Leuthold Group, LLC
Great Power Rivalry, Thucydides Trap and Threats to Global Stability
Paul Kennedy, Historian & Professor, Yale University and
David Asher, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Fireside Chat: Will Emerging Markets Ever Outperform Again?
Mark Mobius, Founding Partner, Mobius Capital Partners and
Chen Zhao, Chief Global Strategist, Alpine Macro
Fireside Chat: Where are the Bubbles? Private Equity and Passive Management
Celia Dallas, Chief Investment Strategist, Cambridge Associates and
David Abramson, Chief U.S. Strategist & Director of Research, Alpine Macro
Lunch Presentation: The U.S. Presidential Election and the Future of Political Populism
Norm Ornstein, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute
The Dollar: Breakout or Breakdown?
Mark Chandler, Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Global Forex and
Harvinder Kalirai, Chief Fixed Income & FX Strategist, Alpine Macro
Energy: Value Trap or Buy of a Lifetime?
Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner, Goehring & Rozencwajg
Alpine Panel: Asset Allocation Strategy in an Uncertain World
Alpine Macro Strategists
730 Third Ave, New York, NY 10017
Monday, 04 May 2020
8:00am to 4:30pm
USD $1,495 (Early Bird*)
USD $1,995 (Regular Price)
Confirmed List of Guest Speakers
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Dr. David Asher is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC where he specializes in economics and security focused on East Asia. He is a founding partner of Sayari, a financial intelligence and commercial big data provider. David also is on the board of advisors for Alpine Macro and the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Over the last 25 years Asher has advised several of world’s leading hedge funds and asset managers on Japan and global macro strategy. For Daniel Loeb at Third Point, David helped strategize, plan, and execute the introduction of ‘polite’ activism into Japan producing significant success with investments in Sony, Fanuc, and other major companies. For Alan Howard at Brevan Howard, Asher covered Japan and global market intelligence centered around the G7 and helped develop their artificial intelligence driven quant fixed income business. Via Vital Financial LLC he continues to advise prominent financial clients.
At the Departments of State and Defense, the National Security Council, and within the US Intelligence Community, David has been a significant policymaker, planner, and special coordinator of US initiatives and actions in the East Asia region and is one of the nation’s most accomplished “Asia hands.” Asher also has served the US government in senior roles spearheading economic and financial pressure campaigns involving defiant states, terrorist organizations, drug cartels, and weapons proliferation networks, including North Korea, Iran, China, the Islamic State, Hezbollah, Colombian cartels, and the A.Q. Khan Network.
Asher has a doctorate in International Relations and Economic History from Oxford University and was a College Scholar at Cornell University as an Undergraduate. He is fluent in Japanese.
Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Global Forex
Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets for more than 30 years, including stints as the global head of currency strategy for both HSBC and Brown Brothers Harriman. Chandler recently joined Bannockburn Global Forex, LLC as a Managing Partner and Chief Market Strategist in 2018.
A prolific writer and speaker, Chandler appears regularly in the financial media. He is often quoted in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Bloomberg, and the Washington Post, among others. Marc also provides his insights and commentary on the markets on the most widely watched financial news channels, including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, CNN, and Fox Business.
Marc’s first book, Making Sense of the Dollar, was published by Bloomberg Press in 2009 and received a Bronze Award from Independent Publishers. Chandler’s second book, Political Economy of Tomorrow, was published in February 2017.
Chandler is also an honorary fellow of the Foreign Policy Association and has been named a Business Visionary by Forbes.
Currently, Chandler teaches at New York University Center for Global Affairs, where he is an associate professor. He is also an honorary visiting professor at the Darden School of Business at the University of Virginia.
Though a Chicago native, and lifelong Cubs fan, Chandler currently resides in New York City with his wife, Jeannine, and son, Nathan.
Chief Investment Strategist, Cambridge Associates
Celia Dallas is the Chief Investment Strategist. With more than 25 years of investment experience, she is responsible for formulating our global investment strategy and portfolio construction philosophy. Celia joined Cambridge Associates in 1996 and has contributed to a wide range of research initiatives covering strategic and tactical asset allocation, portfolio risk management, endowment spending policy, and liquidity management. She is the author of our quarterly publication, VantagePoint, in which she shares our firm’s house view and investment philosophies. Celia is a regular contributor to additional research publications, covering a wide range of capital market, asset allocation, and investment planning topics. She is also a frequent speaker and moderator at the firm’s roundtables and various industry conferences.
Before joining Cambridge Associates, Celia was a consultant for Harlan Brown & Co, a competitive intelligence consulting firm. In this position, she researched, wrote, and presented market analysis commissioned by Fortune 500 clients on a variety of consumer and industrial products. She also worked for the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI), where she conducted research and wrote reports on retirement income security issues. Celia received an MBA from Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, and a BA from the University of Pennsylvania.
Founder and Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
James Grant, financial journalist and historian, is the founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal of the investment markets. His book, The Forgotten Depression, 1921: The Crash that Cured Itself, a history of America’s last governmentally unmedicated business-cycle downturn, won the 2015 Hayek Prize of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. His new book, Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest Victorian, was published in July.
Among his other books on finance and financial history are Bernard M. Baruch: The Adventures of a Wall Street Legend (Simon & Schuster, 1983), Money of the Mind (Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1992), Minding Mr. Market (Farrar, Straus, 1993), The Trouble with Prosperity (Times Books, 1996), and Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
He is, in addition, the author of a pair of political biographies: John Adams: Party of One, a life of the second president of the United States (Farrar, Straus, 2005) and Mr. Speaker! The Life and Times of Thomas B. Reed, the Man Who Broke the Filibuster (Simon & Schuster, 2011).
Mr. Grant’s television appearances include “60 Minutes,” “The Charlie Rose Show,” “CBS Evening News,” and a 10-year stint on “Wall Street Week”. His journalism has appeared in a variety of periodicals, including The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs and The Claremont Review of Books. He contributed an essay to the Sixth Edition of Graham and Dodd’s Security Analysis (McGraw-Hill, 2009).
Mr. Grant, a former Navy gunner’s mate, is a Phi Beta Kappa alumnus of Indiana University. He earned a master’s degree in international relations from Columbia University, began his career in journalism in 1972, at the Baltimore Sun, and joined the staff of Barron’s in 1975. He is a trustee of the New York Historical Society and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He and his wife, Patricia Kavanagh M.D., live in Brooklyn. They are the parents of four grown children.
Historian & Professor, Yale University
Paul Kennedy, Dilworth Professor of History, Founding Director of Yale International Security Studies, Distinguished Fellow of the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy, Fellow of the Royal Historical Society, the American Philosophical Society, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He was made Commander of the Order of the British Empire in 2000 for services to History. He teaches Yale’s course “Military History of the West since 1500”, as well as numerous seminars on Great Power politics.
He has published or edited 19 books on the history of British foreign policy and Great Power struggles. His best-known work The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, which has been translated into over twenty languages. Prof. Kennedy’s most recent book Engineers of Victory, history through the eyes of problem-solvers during the Second World War, was published in 2013. He is currently writing a book about seapower and global transformations during World War Two.
Founding Partner, Mobius Capital Partners
Eponymous founder Dr. Mobius has spent over 40 years working in and travelling throughout emerging and frontier markets. During this time he has been in charge of actively managed funds totalling over $50 billion in assets. Prior to launching Mobius Capital Partners LLP in May 2018, Dr. Mobius was with Franklin Templeton Investments for more than 30 years, most recently as executive chairman of the Templeton Emerging Markets Group. During his tenure, the group expanded assets under management from US$100 million to over US$50,000 million and launched a number of emerging market and frontier funds focusing on Asia, Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe. In addition to open-end and closed-end mutual funds, he launched a successful series of emerging market private equity funds. Prior to joining Templeton Dr. Mobius was Chief Executive of International Investment Trust. Dr. Mobius has also been a key figure in developing the international policy for emerging markets.
In 1999, he was selected to serve on the World Bank’s Global Corporate Governance Forum as a member of the Private Sector Advisory Group and as co-chairman of its Investor Responsibility Task Force. He is a member of the Economic Advisory Board of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and has been a supervisory board member of OMV Petrom in Romania since 2010. Previously, he served as a Director on the Board of Lukoil, the Russian oil company. Dr. Mobius’ career and influence has earned him numerous industry awards, including most recently the Life Time Achievement Award in Asset Management (2017) Global Investor Magazine; 50 Most Influential People (2011) Bloomberg Markets Magazine; Africa Investor Index Series Awards (2010) African Investor; and the Top 100 Most Powerful and Influential People (2006) Asiamoney.
He has authored several books including The Little Book of Emerging Markets (2012); Bonds – An Introduction to the Core Concepts (2012); Passport to Profits (1999/2012); Mobius on Emerging Markets (1996); The Investor’s Guide to Emerging Markets (1994). Dr. Mobius received his Ph.D. at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and has studied at Boston University, University of Wisconsin, Syracuse University, Kyoto University and the University of New Mexico. In 2007 he was featured in the comic book: Mark Mobius – An Illustrated Biography. Back in school Mark joined the track and field team as a discus thrower having in mind the elegant discus throwing Greek statue. Unfortunately, as it turned out Mark was not quite as graceful and the disk flew in all directions to the panic of the spectators!
Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute
Norman Ornstein is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist and contributing editor for The Atlantic. He is also Chairman of the Campaign Legal Center. For thirty years he was an election eve analyst for CBS News; since 2012, he has been a principal on-air election eve analyst for BBC News. He is also a consultant for the Emmy-award winning HBO series VEEP. He helped create the Continuity of Government Commission, where he served as senior counselor. Mr. Ornstein led a working group of scholars and practitioners that helped shape the campaign finance reform law known as McCain-Feingold. In his decades of involvement in political reform, he played a major role in Senate committee reform, the creation of the Congressional Office of Compliance to ensure Congress was governed by the laws it enacts for others, and in the creation of the House Office of Congressional Ethics.
He was elected as a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2004; he directed the Academy Project on Stewarding America. His many books include The Permanent Campaign and Its Future (AEI Press, 2000); The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track, with Thomas E. Mann (Oxford University Press, 2006, named by the Washington Post one of the best books of 2006 and called by The Economist “a classic”); and the New York Times bestseller, It’s Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided With the New Politics of Extremism, also with Tom Mann, published in May 2012 by Basic Books, and updated in a paperback version in September 2013, named Book of the Year by Ezra Klein’s Wonkblog, one of the ten best books on politics in 2012 by The New Yorker, and one of the best books of 2012 by The Washington Post. An expanded edition, retitled “It’s Even Worse Than It Was,” was published in spring 2016. His new book, with EJ Dionne and Tom Mann, “One Nation After Trump: A Guide for the Perplexed, the Disillusioned, the Desperate and the Not-Yet-Deported” was published by St Martin’s Press in September 2017, and was immediately on the New York Times and Washington Post best seller lists.
Ornstein has a BA from the University of Minnesota and an MA and PhD from the University of Michigan. He received an honorary Doctor of Laws degree from his alma mater in 2007, and was given the second annual “Above Average” Alumni Award (named for its first recipient, Garrison Keillor,) by the University of Minnesota Alumni Association in 2013. He received the 2006 Goodnow lifetime achievement Award from the American Political Science Association for service to the political science profession. Ornstein was spotlighted as one of 2012’s 100 Top Global Thinkers by Foreign Policy Magazine, and has been profiled in the alumni magazines of both the University of Minnesota and the University of Michigan.
Chief Investment Strategist, The Leuthold Group, LLC.
James Paulsen is Chief Investment Strategist of The Leuthold Group, LLC. He is a member of the investment committee, authors market and economic commentary, and works with the Leuthold investment team in serving institutional, financial advisor, and investment professional clients. He will continue writing his long-running newsletter which will be published and distributed alongside our premier monthly research product, Perception for the Professional.
Paulsen has been an investment industry professional since 1983, most recently as Chief Investment Strategist at Wells Capital Management where he worked for 20 years. Prior to that, Jim was the senior managing director and Chief Investment Strategist for Investors Management Group in Des Moines, Iowa. He also served as president of SCI Capital Management in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. For more than 30 years, Jim has published commentary assessing economic and market trends. He is nationally recognized for his views on the economy, frequently appears on CNBC and Bloomberg TV, and is invited to speaking engagements across the country. He has been named a top economic forecaster by Business Week, and Money Magazine called his newsletter one of “101 Things Every Investor Should Know.” Jim earned a Bachelor degree and Doctoral degree in Economics from Iowa State University.
ADAM A. ROZENCWAJG
Managing Partner, Goehring & Rozencwajg
Adam A. Rozencwajg has 13 years of investment experience. Between 2007 and 2015, Mr. Rozencwajg worked exclusively on the Global Natural Resources Fund at Chilton Investment Company with Mr. Goehring. Prior to joining Chilton Investment Company, Mr. Rozencwajg worked in the Investment Banking department at Lehman Brothers between 2006 and 2007. Mr. Rozencwajg holds a Bachelor of Arts degree with a major in Economics/Philosophy from Columbia University. Mr. Rozencwajg is a CFA charter-holder.
Chief U.S. Policy Strategist AGF Investments
Greg Valliere joined AGF Investments (AGF) in February 2019 as Chief U.S. Policy Strategist. In this role, he is responsible for providing insight into how U.S. politics are shaping global markets.
He brings a unique perspective to AGF with over three decades of experience analyzing policy and politics providing regular commentary and insight into Washington for financial services and investment management clients globally, including specialized coverage of the Federal Reserve, economic policy and politics.
Greg began partnering with AGF in 2017 advising investment management teams on policy and the impact on global markets, providing daily market commentary for financial advisors and participating in numerous client events and roadshows.
Most recently, Greg was the Chief Global Strategist at North Carolina based Horizon Investments, LLC and has nearly 40 years of experience following Washington issues for institutional and retail investors. He is widely quoted in U.S. media and specializes in coverage of the Federal Reserve, tax and spending issues, and politics. Greg is based in Washington, D.C.
Alpine Macro Strategists
J. ANTHONY BOECKH
Chief Fixed Income & Currency Strategist
Chief U.S. Strategist & Director of Research
Chief EM & China Strategist