Written by David Abramson this edition of Macro Monthly consists of three sections: a roundup of U.S. macro themes, a Special Report on high-yield corporate bonds and a Feature Report on whether this time is different in Brazil. All are geared to provide insights and help your investment decisions.

 

U.S. Macro Themes: “Protectionism Tail Risk”
Monetary overkill presents a bigger threat than protectionism to U.S. markets in the coming months. It could spur a countertrend dollar rally, commodity correction and flatter yield curve.

Special Report:  “High-Yield Bond Free Lunch Is Over”
Long-term expected nominal returns of 3.9% are not compelling versus investment-grade corporates or the S&P500. Energy high-yield is the exception.

Feature Report:  “Brazil, This Time Is Not Different”
Lula could be the kingmaker for the next President, even though he is in jail. But commodity prices will be more important than politics for Brazilian markets this year.

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David Abramson
Senior Strategist

David is a Partner and Senior Strategist with Alpine Macro. For 28 years, David was a Macro Strategist holding a variety of senior roles at BCA Research. Most recently, he was Chief U.S. Strategist and also Director of Research for the firm. During his tenure at BCA Research, David launched and managed the European Strategy and Commodity & Energy Strategy services. In addition, he was the Managing Editor for the Foreign Exchange Strategy and the China Investment Strategy services.