What Will Drive Equities: Positive EPS Surprises Or Looming Recession?

The Chart shows that earnings surprises, which lead forward EPS, rose sharply in Q1. Is this sustainable as the economy slows, the #creditcrunch intensifies, and Fed rate hikes have a lagged impact on demand? Cost inflation trends will be critical.

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The Debt Ceiling Drama Unfolds!

As the debtceiling deadline nears, does deeper market volatility loom? Which way will equities and Treasuries move? Will history repeat itself with a 2011-style crisis, or will the current policymaking gridlock take another course? Ultimately, will Congress manage to pass legislation right before the X-Date, avoiding a debt ceiling breach?

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Commercial Real Estate: Different This Time?

The #CRE sector looks headed for a brutal downward adjustment, judging from ominous remarks by both the Fed and well-respected #money managers, not to mention the dire Q1 Fed Senior Loan Officers Survey (see Chart). But is all that gloom warranted? The contrarian bullish side to the story provides specific investment opportunities resulting from violent dislocation in the sector.

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Intensifying Credit Crunch

The Chart shows that usage of the three #Fed emergency facilities remains high and the flight to quality persists. Yet small #bank deposit outflows are slowing. Stock and bond markets are calm. Is the crisis at a late stage or will the #credit crunch intensify, forcing the Fed to back off?

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Base Effects Will Pull Inflation Lower

The risk/reward balance for relative-return bond investors is quite different from those interested in total return.

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Can Spread/PMI Divergence Persist?

The risk/reward balance for relative-return bond investors is quite different from those interested in total return.

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Our Corporate sector allocation model

Our new #corporate sector #allocation model has an impressive historical track record for both asset allocation and #trades.

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U.S. Inflation is Peaking. What’s Next?

July’s release for both headline CPI and PCE inflation made new highs, and many pundits are calling for a structurally higher inflation regime. We do not agree. Numerous leading indicators suggest that inflation is in a peaking process. Nevertheless, important questions remain. How quickly will inflation moderate? Will the Fed be able to shift gears fast enough to avoid a recession? We tackle these questions by separating inflation into supply-driven and demand-driven components. Read today’s report for the answers.

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U.S. Inflation is Peaking. What’s Next?

July’s release for both headline CPI and PCE inflation made new highs, and many pundits are calling for a structurally higher inflation regime. We do not agree. Numerous leading indicators suggest that inflation is in a peaking process. Nevertheless, important questions remain. How quickly will inflation moderate? Will the Fed be able to shift gears fast enough to avoid a recession? We tackle these questions by separating inflation into supply-driven and demand-driven components. Read today’s report for the answers.

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Easing Bottlenecks + Recession = Lower Inflation

The U.S. and global economies are either already in or heading into a recession, supply chain bottlenecks are easing, inventories are building up rapidly, and commodity prices are no longer rising. Are inflation risks tilting to the downside?

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